Indonesia prepares to carry out B40 in January

Because case, prices might rally 10%-15% in Jan-March, Mielke says

B40 will require extra 3 mln loads feedstock, GAPKI says

Malaysia palm oil standard at highest given that mid-2022

India may withdraw import tax trek amidst inflation, Mistry says

(Adds analyst remarks, updates Malaysia's palm oil criteria cost)

By Bernadette Christina

NUSA DUA, Indonesia, Nov 8 (Reuters) - Indonesia's palm oil output is anticipated to recover in 2025 after an anticipated drop this year, however costs are expected to remain elevated due to organized expansion of the nation's biodiesel mandate, market analysts stated.

The palm oil criteria cost in Malaysia has increased more than 35% this year, lifted by sluggish output and Indonesia's plan to increase the obligatory domestic biodiesel mix to 40% in January from 35% now in an effort to minimize fuel imports.

Palm oil output next year in leading manufacturer Indonesia is anticipated to recover by 1.5 million metric heaps compared to an estimated drop of simply over a million heaps this year, Julian McGill, handling director at Glenauk Economics, told the Indonesia Palm Oil Conference on Friday.

Thomas Mielke, head of Hamburg-based research company Oil World, said he expects Indonesia's palm oil production to increase by as much as 2 million lots next year after a 2.5 million load drop in 2024.

While Indonesia's output is forecast to improve, supply from somewhere else and of other vegetable oils is seen tightening up.

Palm oil output in neighbouring Malaysia is anticipated to dip slightly next year after increasing by an estimated 1 million lots in 2024.

"We would need a healing in palm in 2025 due to the fact that combined exports of soya, sunflower and rapeseed oils are decreasing," Mielke said.

'FRIGHTENING' PRICE SURGE

The price surge in palm oil in the past 7 weeks has actually been "frightening" for purchasers, Mielke stated, including that it would rally by 10%-15% in January-March if Indonesia enforces the so-called B40 policy.

The Indonesia Palm Oil Association said extra feedstock of around 3 million loads will be required for B40 implementation, eroding export supply.

The current palm oil premium has already caused palm to lose market share versus other oils, Mielke included.

Malaysian palm oil rates are seen trading at around $950 to $1,050 per metric load in 2025, McGill of Glenauk approximated.

Benchmark Malaysian palm oil touched 5,104 ringgit ($1,165.30) on Friday, the greatest because mid-2022.

"Sentiment today is red-hot and exceptionally bullish, we have to beware," stated Dorab Mistry, director at Indian durable goods company Godrej International.

He anticipated the Malaysian price around 5,000 ringgit and above up until June 2025.

Mielke and Mistry urged Indonesia to

think about postponing

B40 application on concern about its impact on food customers.

Meanwhile, Mistry anticipated leading palm oil importer India to withdraw its

import responsibility hike

enforced from September after elections in the state of Maharashtra in November. ($1 = 4.3800 ringgit) (Reporting by Bernadette Christina Munthe Writing by Fransiska Nangoy; Editing by John Mair, Jane Merriman and Daren Butler)